Beijing's target of 100000 passenger cars in 2018

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On December 15, the Beijing Municipal Commission of transport released the total amount and allocation proportion of the 2018 Beijing passenger car indicators and the 2017 revision of the Interim Provisions on the regulation of the number of Beijing passenger cars. In 2018, the total number of passenger car indicators decreased from 150000 to 100000, of which the new energy indicators remained unchanged at 60000, and the number of common indicators decreased from 90000 to 40000. The indicators are greatly tilted towards individuals, and the number of indicators for individual ordinary cars becomes 38000. The number of new energy indicators will exceed that of ordinary vehicles for the first time

1. Overview of Beijing's ownership, licensing and withdrawal

according to the data in China's statistical yearbook, Beijing had 5.47 million units by the end of 2016, an increase of 136300 units over the previous 15 years. 570000 units were licensed in 2016, an increase of 30000 units compared with that in 2016. Due to the increasing efforts of scrapping and transferring out in Beijing in recent years, the renewal of old vehicles has greatly promoted the Beijing market. On the basis of an average annual scrap of 350000 units from 12 to 15 years, about 510000 units were transferred out for scrap in 15 years and 430000 units in 16 years. It can be seen that the Beijing market holds a high position in the national market, with a large outflow of used cars and a strong sales of new cars

2. Analysis on the change of Beijing market ownership

the main growth structure of Beijing market ownership is the continuous growth of trucks, reaching a high of 6% in 2016, higher than all years after 2008, reflecting the strong demand for trucks in big cities

the demand for heavy trucks in Beijing is strong. After 2002, the number of heavy trucks in Beijing dropped all the way and reached the bottom of 23000 in 2007. However, it began to rise in 2007 and has reached the level of 60000 units

the proportion of passenger cars in Beijing has been declining, from 94.7% in 10 years to 93.1% in 16 years. The number of small passenger cars in Beijing market mainly accounts for 90%, which is a feature of gradual growth. The growth of passenger cars is mainly due to the erosion of the wechat market

3. With the policy adjustment, the number of license plates in Beijing is extremely large, reaching 869500 units in 2010, and it also fluctuates significantly when the license restriction policy changes

in 2011, only 400000 were listed in Beijing. On december27,2011, the implementation rules were revised for the first time. The revised contents mainly include: first, it was clear that the indicators of expired unused personal passenger cars were reintroduced into the configuration of the lottery pool; Second, stipulate the validity period of individual allocation index application and simplify the number of lottery pool codes; The third is to allow new registered enterprises to participate in lottery, so as to facilitate the development of enterprises; Fourth, clarify the timeliness of application for updating indicators and strengthen indicator management. On this basis, 588000 licenses were registered in Beijing in 2012

589000 sets were registered in Beijing in 2013 and 2012. On november27,2013, the implementation rules were revised again. The revised contents mainly include: setting the winning rate of individual lottery steps to relieve the pressure of "long-term failure"; Increase the allocation of indicators for new energy passenger cars; Solve the problem of application indicators after the theft and robbery of public passenger cars; Cooperate with the municipal court to implement the judicial auction of the transfer of Beijing brand passenger cars with indicators to solve the problem of difficult implementation. Therefore, the total number of licenses decreased by 90000 in 2014. In addition, the utilization rate of 20000 new energy is not high, resulting in the number of licenses in Beijing decreased to 500000 in 2014, a decrease of 85000 units compared with that in 2013. In 2015, the recognition of new energy vehicles increased, the number of buyers increased significantly, and 540000 new energy vehicles were licensed in 15 years

573000 units were licensed in Beijing in 2016. An increase of 4 linear stepper rotation angles compared with 2015 will produce a certain linear displacement of 10000 units. On january22,2016, the advanced rules for the lottery winning rate of ordinary passenger cars were further adjusted to give more attention to the applicants who failed to win the lottery for a long time. The notice on the relevant rules for the waiting configuration of the configuration indicators for demonstration and application of new energy passenger cars was issued, and the replacement of the two-phase live wires in the input 380V was canceled. At the same time, the LED display screen was cleared, and then the preset dial switch was adjusted to the number of experiments. The new energy passenger car indicators were shaken. The effect of the policy will also promote the sales of new energy vehicles in Beijing in 2017

the impact of the latest license restriction policy in Beijing

1. The license restriction policy will not spread

as the number of traditional cars in Beijing has decreased from 240000 in 11 years to 130000 in 14 years, 120000 in 15 years, 90000 in 16 years, and 40000 in 18 years. At present, it is difficult for consumers who buy private cars to buy cars by lottery

it is impossible to implement the purchase restriction in other cities at present. At present, there is no effective mitigation measures for the purchase restriction policy, and the lottery group of purchase restriction is still unable to alleviate. And because the management of the right of way of motor vehicles can not strictly control foreign vehicles. Therefore, more cities will not adopt the purchase restriction method, but need greater wisdom to solve the congestion problem

2. Traffic congestion should be restricted rather than purchase.

the congestion in Beijing and other cities is mainly due to the high frequency of vehicle use, which makes urban traffic management more difficult. At present, the effect of using economic means to curb the travel of car owners is not good, and it can only be solved through purchase restriction

3. The timetable for stopping the sale of traditional fuel vehicles in Beijing has been accelerated.

in 2018, the number of newly purchased fuel vehicles in Beijing was lower than that of electric vehicles, and there seems to be a trend for newly purchased vehicles to stop buying traditional fuel vehicles in the future. This is also what we call the timetable for stopping the sale of traditional fuel vehicles, which has been rapidly promoted in Beijing

4. Electric vehicles in Beijing are also hard to find.

at present, there are about 120000 new energy vehicles in Beijing, which is far more than the supply of new energy vehicles in the next two years. Therefore, many people queuing to buy traditional cars in early 2018 will also buy new energy vehicles. Increasing the queuing pressure on new energy vehicles will inevitably lead to a substantial increase in the queuing group of new energy vehicles in Beijing

5. Local subsidies for new energy vehicles in Beijing may be reduced

there are rumors that local subsidies will be cancelled, which is also the impact of Beijing's characteristic demand. Although whether there is subsidy or not will make Beijing people buy new energy vehicles, it is good for car enterprises to have subsidies

in a word, the decrease in the number of traditional cars in Beijing is a great pressure on the car market, and has little promotion on new energy, but has a great impact on Beijing consumers


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