The impact of VAT reduction 3 on the aluminum indu

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The impact of a 3% reduction in value-added tax on the aluminum industry is limited.

value-added tax is a turnover tax. The reduction of tax rate can significantly improve the cash flow of enterprises with high gross profit margin, while the reduction of tax rate has little impact on enterprises with low gross profit margin or losses. According to the statistics of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, in 2018, China also invested in an offshore wind power facility. The sales profit margin of the aluminum smelting industry was only 1.98%, and the profitability of the industry was still poor. In this context, if an enterprise's gross profit rate per ton of aluminum is 100 yuan, the value-added tax will be reduced by 3 percentage points from 16%, which means that the value-added tax paid by the enterprise will only be reduced from 16 yuan/ton to 13 yuan/ton, with little impact on the enterprise itself or the absolute market price

from the perspective of cost structure, the weighted average full cost of China's electrolytic aluminum in 2018 was about 14900 yuan/ton (including tax), including labor costs, depreciation costs, maintenance costs, financial expenses, management expenses and sales expenses totaling about 2250 yuan/ton, accounting for 15% of the full cost. Considering that the above parts do not generate value-added tax, a 3% reduction in value-added tax rate has no fundamental impact on this part of the cost. At the same time, considering that the remaining 85% of the costs are raw and auxiliary materials such as power, aluminum oxide, anode carbon block and aluminum fluoride purchased by the enterprise, the input tax will be greater than the output tax to some extent during the monthly conversion period when the value-added tax rate is reduced from 16% to 13%, so the cash flow and profitability of aluminum enterprises will be significantly improved. In the long run, aluminum is a fully competitive industry. Theoretically, in order to obtain a larger market share, enterprises are willing to transfer this part of the benefits to customers or consumers. Therefore, they will choose to sell products at reduced prices, which is detrimental to the price

at present, it is reported that the market sentiment is still mainly focused on the reduction of VAT, in order to ensure the comparability of the experimental results of the same product under the environmental experimental conditions specified in the same experimental specification. During this period, there will be short-term structural changes in the futures market in the near and far months. The spot aluminum will show the status of near month high and far month end, while the spot market will also show the willingness to hoard and sell. However, once the time of VAT reduction is clear, the market focus will quickly return to the supply and demand fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum, and the futures and spot prices will gradually return to the level of a reasonable range

from April to may 2018, the government announced that it would reduce the value-added tax from 17% to 16%. From the reaction of the futures and spot markets at that time, except for the short-term and long-term changes in the structure of aluminum, the trend of aluminum price has not been greatly affected by the policy, and the core factor leading the price direction is still the supply and demand fundamentals

based on the above analysis, the government's reduction of VAT by 3 percentage points will only have a positive impact on the near and far month structure of aluminum futures contracts and traders who have accumulated considerable inventory in the early stage, and will have a limited impact on the trend of absolute prices and the improvement of enterprises with low gross profit margin


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